17-4-2025 – The dawn of 2025’s second quarter has unleashed a tempest in the cryptocurrency market, with President Donald Trump’s freshly minted tariff policies rattling global financial ecosystems. These measures, poised to reignite trade frictions with China after a fleeting 90-day truce, have sown unease among investors, casting a shadow over hopes for a crypto-friendly administration. Far from galvanising the market, the new policies have coincided with a bruising start to the year, with Ether plummeting 40% and Bitcoin slumping to $78,000 in Q1 before clawing back modest gains.
Yet, amidst the turmoil, glimmers of optimism persist. Coinbase’s April Monthly Outlook foresees a potential stabilisation by mid-to-late Q2, pinpointing May or June as a turning point. The exchange anticipates lingering volatility through April and into May, driven by the tariff skirmish and tightening financial conditions. High-risk assets like cryptocurrencies have borne the brunt, with Bitcoin and the broader COIN50 index slipping below their critical 200-day moving averages—a harbinger of bearish sentiment for many traders. The Fear & Greed Index, a barometer of market mood, has plunged into “Extreme Fear,” mirroring the pervasive anxiety.
Looking further ahead, Coinbase projects a robust resurgence in Q3, fuelled by a confluence of catalysts. Bitcoin’s recent halving, a cyclical event that historically sparks significant price surges, underpins much of this optimism. The growing presence of institutional investors, bolstered by the introduction of Bitcoin spot ETFs in the U.S., is injecting stability and sustained interest. ARK Invest’s Big Ideas 2025 report echoes this sentiment, heralding a transformative year for crypto, propelled by accelerating adoption and technological breakthroughs. An improving regulatory landscape in the U.S. could further erode investor trepidation, coaxing fresh capital into the market.
Crypto analyst Matt Hougan remains sanguine, predicting a Q2 rebound despite the sector’s uncharacteristically weak Q1 performance. He points to expanding global money supply, easing monetary policies, and nascent regulatory clarity in the U.S. as potential tailwinds. The tariff-induced global tensions, he argues, are prompting investors to reassess asset allocations, with Bitcoin potentially soaring to $200,000 by year’s end. Historical parallels bolster this hope: in 2020, Bitcoin weathered a March crash only to stabilise by May, paving the way for a spectacular rally. Today’s dip, Coinbase suggests, could similarly entice bargain-hunters once the storm subsides.
